A Filipino scientific team has predicted a 44 percent decline in corn output in 2020 and 35 percent in 2030 by using an advanced computer system that analyzes the impact of temperature, rainfall, soil chemistry, fertility and other factors.
Dr. Orlando F. Balderama, a professor at the College of Engineering of the Isabela State University (ISU), revealed the study, which he discussed during the Information and Computer Technology Asia (ICT Asia) workshop sponsored by the French government and the Southeast Asian Regional Center for Graduate Study and Research in Agriculture (Searca) at the Searca headquarters in Los Baños, Laguna recently.
Balderama’s team is composed of Edgardo Tongson of the World Wide Fund for Nature, Lanie Alejo of ISU, Rhia Togo of the Cagayan Valley Research Center (CVRC) of the Department of Agriculture (DA) and Severino Tumamang.
Searca Director Dr. Gil C. Saguiguit Jr. said the output of the Balderama team is significant since it represents the first long-term corn yield prediction by any academic team.
Moreover, Saguiguit said, the system devised by the same team was anchored on the simulation of crop yields using climate modeling and the feeding of data on fertility, rainfall and temperature using historical trends.
The model was able to predict the observed data on yield and timing of phonological events from the actual experiments with high accuracy ranging from 91 percent to 98 percent for the calibration and 86 percent to 97 percent for the validation process.
