In the long run, continuous extraction of forest resources without adherence to sustainable management principles poses adverse impacts to biodiversity and the forest ecosystem, in general.

The Tagbanuas, an indigenous group in Palawan, are the primary users of the Aborlan Guba System

According to Dr. Sopsop, Palawan is one of the Philippines’ natural treasures with its immense number of flowering plant species of which 15 to 20% are endemic. The municipality of Aborlan in Palawan harbors the Aborlan Guba System, an old growth forest known for its rich floral diversity and endemism. The indigenous Tagbanua and migrants from the Visayan region utilize the resources in the forest.

She explained that species loss and other escalating threats to Aborlan Guba System's biodiversity are influenced by how the people use forest resources. Hence, there is a need to address the knowledge gap on biodiversity in order to design appropriate conservation initiatives. Dr. Sopsop said that the results of her study can help politicians, decision-makers, and other concerned sectors formulate a sustainable management plan for the Aborlan Guba System.

Using the Structural Thinking Experiential Learning Laboratory with Animation (STELLA) program, she developed a model to analyze gathered socio-economic data vis-à-vis current resource utilization practices and government interventions, and determine possible scenarios for Aborlan Guba System's future environmental conditions.

Through simulation, she found that education, family size, farm size, and income significantly influenced the farmers’ and other resource collectors’ frequency of forest resource harvest. Farmers or collectors with low educational attainment, large family size, small farm size, and low income tend to harvest more frequently. Likewise, she noted that inadequate support from the government, high demand of some forest products, and the notion that the forest is a public good intensify resource utilization.

If the people's current practices persist, the proposed model predicted that 33% of the species and 50% of the forest cover in Aborlan Guba System would be lost by year 2031. At this rate, she also said that around US$ 17,172 or PhP 789,912 may be lost yearly based on the 3% annual forest loss accounted for by ecological functions such as climate regulation, nutrient cycling, erosion control, and genetic resources conservation.

She concluded that the current resource utilization practices of the people in Aborlan are not sustainable when viewed at the ecological and socioeconomic standpoints. Without government interventions centered on sustainable management and conservation principles, the Aborlan Guba System will deteriorate.

She recommended elevating the status of Aborlan Guba System from controlled use zone to core zone in order to provide urgent protection and sustenance of its biodiversity. Under the controlled use zone, forests are protected from abusive use of its resources while no human activity or disruption is allowed in forests classified as core zone.

Further studies focused on the Aborlan Guba System's sustainable management are also encouraged. The local government unit and other organizations should help create livelihood opportunities that do not cause further destruction to the forest resources, she emphasized.

Dr. Sopsop is an assistant professor at the College of Forestry and Environmental Sciences in Western Philippines University, Aborlan, Palawan, Philippines. She finished her PhD in Environmental Science at the University of the Philippines Los Baños (UPLB) last April 2010. She is one of the seven SEARCA PhD research scholars who completed their degree this year. She is also a recipient of the UPLB Graduate School Academic Excellence Award for PhD graduates.